ГЛОБАЛНА ДОМИНАЦИЈА ДОЛАРА НА ИЗМАКУ?
Сажетак
У раду се указује да се релативно спор развој јуана као резервне валуте одвија паралелно са експанзијом трговине фактурисане у ренминбијама. Тврди се да би, и у одсуству финансијске либерализације, ренминби ипак могао постати глобална валута. Наиме, предност статуса лидера у светској трговини ствара потенцијал за креирање тражње и понуде ренминбија, а у истом смеру делује и повећање броја централних банака са којима Народна банка Кине има уговоре о своп линијама за размену девиза, као и убрзан развој офшор тржишта јуана. Важан моменат биће очекиване промене у кинеском режиму девизног курса будући да би престанак везивања јуана за корпу валута и прелазак на режим циљања инфлације могао да доведе до тога да већи део Азије прати Кину, односно интензивније користи њену валуту. Додатно, иако тренутно искључиво за домаћу употребу, дигитална валута централне банке Кине ће на крају олакшати међународну употребу ренминбија. Последично, може се закључити да ће у наредним деценијама долар наставити да буде главна светска монета, али не тако изражено као што је то тренутно случај.
Горан Б. Николић
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