WORLD TRENDS FROM 2022

Слободан Јанковић

Сажетак

Рад је настао у оквиру научноистраживачког пројекта „Република Србија и
изазови у међународним односима 2022. године“, који финансира
Министарство просвете, науке и технолошког развија Републике Србије, а
реализује Институт за међународну политику и привреду током 2022.
године.

This paper, divided in three chapters of uneven length, analyses the world trends in near future. Forecasting major processes at the global scale is a key task of the IR discipline. Author asks the question whether current world order restructuring is causing the outbreak of the new World War. In order to answer the question, he first underlines importance of forecasting, and explains what the world war is. Author claims that approach according to which it is required to have theoretical background in order to make scientific prediction is erroneous. The closest there is to objective framework is according to the author, to employ Italian neoclassical geopolitical school. In the article, author questions international and national, societal, political and only briefly economic trends in the collective West and in the Middle East. He presents the reasons why BRICS, or the East and South are growing and leading the change in major power redistribution in the framework of the new multipolar world order.

Референце

• Akkuyu Nuclear Rosatom. n.d.  “Akkuyu NPP Construction Project.” Last access July 31, 2022. http://www.akkunpp.com/index.php?lang=en.
• Bukele, Nayib. 2022. “Tweet – The US Government DOES NOT stand for freedom and that is a proven fact.” https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1506823849060577293 accessed: 14/08/2022.
• Bull, Hedley. 1966. “International Theory: The Case for a Classical Approach.” World Politics 18 (3): 367. doi: doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.2541.
• Collins, Randall. 1993. “What Does Conflict Theory Predict about America’s Future? 1993 Presidential Address.” Sociological Perspectives 36 (4): 289‒313. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1389390.
• Declaration on allied cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2022. February 22, 2022. The President of Russia. Last access April 10, 2022. http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5777.
• Greene, Jay. 2022. “Puberty Blockers, Cross-Sex Hormones, and Youth Suicide.” The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder No. 3712. Last access July 8, 2022. https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/BG3712_0.pdf.
• Hafezi, Parisa, and Faulconbridge, Guy. 2022. “Iran applies to join China and Russia in BRICS club.” Reuters. Last access June 29, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-applies-join-brics-group-emerging-countries-2022-06-27/.
• Janković, Slobodan. 2016. „Svetski trendovi od 2017. godine.” Politeia 6 (12): 124‒141. doi.org/10.5937/pol1612124J.
• Janković, Slobodan. 2017. “World War Three?” In Social and economic problems and challenges in the contemporary world, eds. Branislav Đorđević, Taro Tsukimura, and Ivona Lađevac, 41‒57. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics.
• Janković, Slobodan. 2020. “South and East Mediterranean power struggle: cases of Libya and Syria.” Review of International Affairs 71 (1178): 79‒97.
• Karouny, Mariam. 2014. “Apocalyptic prophecies drive both sides to Syrian battle for end of time” Reuters. Last access April 4, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-prophecy-insight-idUSBREA3013420140401.
• Kljakić, Ljubomir. 2010. „Kriza‒Istorijska demisija svetskog sistema i srpska kriza. Militarizacija svetskih poslova i svetski korporativni poredak. Preispitivanje.” Nacionalni interes 7 (1): 205‒239. doi.org/10.22182/ni.712010.8.
• Kljakić, Ljubomir. 2022. „Velika polarizacija Sociologija sars 2 Covid 19 kapitalizma.” Nacionalni interes 41 (1): 9‒44. doi.org//10.22182/ni.4112022.1.
• Koopman, Georg, and Marco Wilhelm. 2010. “EU trade policy in the age of bilateralism.” Intereconomics 45 (5): 305–312. doi.org/10.1007/s10272-010-0350-7.
• Koopman, Georg, and Wilhelm, Marco. 2010. “EU trade policy in the age of bilateralism.” Intereconomics 45 (5): 305–312. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-010-0350-7.
• Kostić, Palanski, Zvonimir. 2022. Gog i Magog: Apokaliptička geografija, hronografija i fenomenologija proroka Jezekilja. Niš: Punta.
• Le Parisien. 2022. “En Afrique, Macron accuse la Russie d’être «une puissance coloniale»” Le Parisien. Last acces July 31, 2022. https://www.leparisien.fr/international/en-afrique-macron-accuse-la-russie-detre-une-puissance-coloniale-27-07-2022-T4FLLDCDJVD4HLN3N5SYGIMSJM.php.
• Lizza, Gianfranco. 2001. Geopolitica: itinerari del potere. Torino: UTET libreria.
• Marconi, Matteo. 2012. “Spunti di riflessione su geopolitica e metodo: storia, analisi,
  giudizio.” Geopolitica, rivista semestrale dell’Isag I (3): 47‒64.
• Massi, Ernesto. 1986. “Geopolitica: dalla teoria originaria ai nuovi orientamenti”, Bollettino della Società Geografica Italiana, III (1–6): 3–45.
• McKinsey Global Institute. 2021. “The future of work after COVID 19”. Last access July 7, 2022. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19.
• Metwally, Ali. 2022. “The Middle East food security crisis and its implications.” Al-Monitor Last access July 25, 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/pro/trend-reports/middle-east-food-security-crisis-and-its-implications?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trends%20Report%20Announcement&utm_content=Trends%20Report%20Announcement+CID_3f1de131877c9f68ff67dc3a25a03172&utm_source=campmgr&utm_term=Access%20the%20report.
• Middle East Monitor. 2022. “Iran, Russia to start trading in national currencies, dropping US dollar.” Middle East Monitor. Last access July 31, 2022. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220726-iran-russia-to-start-trading-in-national-currencies-dropping-us-dollar/.
• Morgenthau, Hans J. 1970. Truth and Power, Essays of a decade, 1960–1970. Liverpool: Pall Mall Press.
• National Intelligence Council. 2021. “Global Trends 2040: a more contested world.” Last access July, 2022. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf.
• Nicola Pedde, N, Mezran, Karim. 2022. “L’evoluzione della crisi politica ed economica del Libano 2020-2022.” Rome: Institute for Global Studies.
• Nye, Joseph S. 1990. “The Changing Nature of World Power.” Political Science Quarterly 105 (2): 177–92.  doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2151022.
• OEC. 2022. “Saudi Arabia.” Accessed: 22/4/2022. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau.
• Palanski, Zvonimir Kostić. 2022. Gog i Magog: Apokaliptička geografija, hronografija i fenomenologija proroka Jezekilja. Niš: Punta.
• Pedde, Nicola, and Karim Mezran. 2022. “L’evoluzione della crisi politica ed economica del Libano 2020-2022.” Osservatorio di Politica internazionale, 188 (Marzo): 40.
• Phillips, Christopher. 2001. “Turkey’s global strategy: Turkey and Syria. IDEAS reports – special reports.” In SR007, ed. Nicholas Kitchen. LSE IDEAS. London: London School of Economics and Political Science.
• Phillips, Christopher. 2011. “Turkey’s global strategy: Turkey and Syria.” In Kitchen, Nicholas eds. SR007. LSE IDEAS, IDEAS reports – special reports. London. London School of Economics and Political Science.
• President.az. 2022. “The Declaration on Allied Interaction between Russia and Azerbaijan” Last access May 18, 2022. https://president.az/en/articles/view/55498.
• Prince Michael of Liechtenstein. 2022. “Inflation and overregulation are markers of the end of free societies.” Gis. Last access June 25, 2022. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/inflation-and-overregulation/.
• Proroković, Dušan, N. 2018. „Uloga Šangajske organizacije za saradnju u promeni ravnoteže snaga u Centralnoj Aziji.” Politika nacionalne bezbednosti 15 (2): 79‒95. doi.org/10.22182/pnb.1522018.5.
• Quak, Evert-jan, and Annemarie van de Vijsel. 2014. “Low wages and job insecurity as a destructive global standard.” The Broker. Last access July 02, 2022. https://www.thebrokeronline.eu/low-wages-and-job-insecurity-as-a-destructive-global-standard-d46/.
• Romano, David. 2010. “Iraqi Kurdistan: Challenges of Autonomy in the Wake of US Withdrawal.” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-) 86 (6): 1345–59.
• Sancak, Kadir. 2019. “Issue of Hatay in Turkey-Syria Relations and Geopolitical Importance of Hatay.” Dergi Park. Last access July 21, 2022. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1180025.
• Schneider, Gerald, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Sabine Carey. 2011. “Forecasting in International Relations: One Quest, Three Approaches.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (1): 5–14. doi.org/10.1177/0738894210388079.
• Schweller, Randall L. 1999. “Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory” In Engaging China: Managing a Rising Power Johnston, eds. A. I. and Ross, R. London and New York: Routledge Press.
• Singh, Prof. Kalpana. 2016. “Intra-Brics Trade intensities: An Analytical study.” IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS) 21 (6): 103-114 doi: 10.9790/0837-210608103114.
• Stauber, John Clyde, and Sheldon Rampton. 1995. Toxic Sludge is Good for You: Lies, Damn Lies, and the Public Relations Industry. Monroe: Common Courage Press.
• UNICEF. “Palestinian Program.” Last access June 30, 2022. https://www.unicef.org/lebanon/palestinian-programme.
• Vuković, Nebojša. 2020. „Perspektive američko-indijskog savezništva u svetlu kineske pretnje.” Međunarodna politika 71 (1179−80): 48‒64. doi.org/10.18485/iipe_mp.2020.71.1179_80.3.
• Walker, Edward W. 2019. “U.S.-Russia Relations and the Great Trump Disruption.” Eurasian Geopolitics. Last access: June 30, 2022. https://eurasiangeopolitics.com/2019/04/09/u-s-russia-relations-and-the-great-trump-disruption/.
• Walt, Stephen M. 1985.  “Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power” International Security, 9 (4): 3‒43. doi: doi.org/10.2307/2538540.
• Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley.
• Wenger, Andreas, Jasper, Ursula, and Myriam D. Cavelty. 2020. The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future. London: Routledge.
• World Bank. 2018. The Changing Nature of Work. Last access June 18, 2022. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/10.1596/978-1-4648-1328-3_ch1.
• Zinoviev.ru. 2000. “Zinoviev: Global Suprasociety and Russia.” Last access June 14, 2022. http://www.zinoviev.ru/eng/suprasociety.html accessed: 09/08/2022.
• Президент России. 2022. “Декларация о союзническом взаимодействии между Российской Федерацией и Азербайджанской Республикой.” 22 февраля 2022 года http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5777 accessed: 10/04/2022.