UTICAJ EKONOMSKE KRIZE NA REBALANSIRANJE GLOBALNE MOĆI (Svet u drugoj deceniji 21. veka)

Goran V. Nikolić

Sažetak

Na početku 21. veka svet prolazi kroz turbulentne geopolitičke promene. Finansijska, a potom i ekonomska, kriza krajem 2000-ih dramatično potkopova postojeće globalne obrasce moći. Svet ulazi u neku vrstu multipolarnog međunarodnog sistema. Na delu je difuzija globalne moći, njena preraspodela na kapilarni način. SAD još uvek ima ubedljivo najveću privredu, obim vojne moći u poređenju sa onom kod potencijalnih protivnika je neuporedivo veći, stepen političkog uticaja u međunarodnom sistemu je bez presedana. Međutim, kineski vojni izdaci će sredinom sledeće decenije prestići američke, ekonomska moć te zemlje će još ranije prevazići američku, politički uticaj SAD će ostati snažan, ali ni izbliza kao danas. Budući da je, borem formalno, inaugurisana viševektorska politika naše zemlje, tzv. oslanjanje na četiri stuba svetske moći, promene na globalnoj ravni su od povećanog značaja za kreatore domaće politike.

Reference

1. Brooks S & Wohlforth W 2008. World out of Balance: In­ternational Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2008.
2. Brzezinski Z, 2011. ‘’How to Stay Friends with China’’, The New York Times, January 3, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/opinion/03brzezinski.html?_r=l (26.2.2012.)
3. Cohen M, FEBRUARY 21, 2012. Rotting from the Inside Out, Foreign Policy online http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/21/rotting_from_the_inside_out?page=0,l
4. Etzioni A, 2012. The National Interest. March 21, 2012. The World America Didn’t Make. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/world-america-didn’t-make-6668
5. Gnessoto N & Grevi G, 2006. The New Global Puzzle: What World for the EU in 2025?, Paris, EU ISS, 2006.
6. Игрутиновић M, 2012. Европска спољна политика на двоструком колосеку промена: утицај нових институционалних решења и питање актуелне глобалне улоге, Право и друштво, бр. 2/2012. Службени гласник, Београд.
7. IMF, 2012, World Economic Outlook, ’’Outlook Slowly Im­proving but Remains Fragile’’, (IMF Survey, April 17, 2012.)
8. IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, april 17, 2012.
9. Kaplan R, 2012. America’s Pacific Logic, April 4, 2012, STRATFOR. http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/americas-pacific-logic-robert-d-kaplan#ixzz 1 rF sHTVFF
10. Langhammer R, 2012, China: Stagnation in the Catching Up Process? Kiel Institute Focus. http://www.ifw-kiel.de/media/kiel-institute-focus (1.3.2012.)
11. Layne C, January 27, 2012. The (Almost) Triumph of Offsho­e Balancing, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/almost-triumph-offshore-balancing-6405?page=l
12. Merry R, February 8, 2012. Understanding America’s Fall. National Interest online. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/understanding-americas-fall-6473 (28.2.2012.)
13. OECD, China’s Emergence as a Market Economy: Achievements and Challenges. OECD contribution to the China Development Forum 20-21 March 2011, Bei­jing. Edited by Richard Herd.
14. Parello-Plassner J, Germany and China’s new entente commerciale, 29 June 2011, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_germany_and_chinas_new_entente_ commerciale, 27.02.2012.
15. Росстат, 2011. Изменение численности населения по ва­риантам прогноза, http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/prognl.htm (18.4.2012.)
16. Saran S, ‘’Geopolitical Consequences of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis – A Reassessment after One Year’’, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, April 26, 2010; http://www.maritimeindia.org/pdfs/TheGeoploticalConsequences.pdf.
17. The Economist, 2011. The dating ga­me, Dec 27th 2011, The Economist online. http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date (28.12.2011)
18. The Economist, 2012. Double your income!, Dec 7th 2011, 14:55 by The Economist online (McKinsey Global Insti­tute; IMF average of growth forecasts for 2011-16).
19. The Economist, 2012a. Rolling back the years. Feb 23rd 2012. The Economist online. http://www.economist.com/comment/1278601 (28.2.2012)
20. Washington Post, 2012. 02/14/2012. Opinions: Intervi­ew Robert Kagan: The World America Made. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/robert-kagan-the-world-america-made/2012/02/13/glQARYQ7BR_blog.html