Tema broja


US Presidential Election 2016: How Trump Beat Demographics


The United States presidential election, the most important political election in the world, resulted in Donald Trump’s victory. This year’s election was, for many reasons, historical. For the first time ever, one of the major parties’ candidates was a woman, and the winner was the person that collected half the funds the other candidate did, and that has almost no political experience whatsoever. It seems that Donald Trump faced more problems and resistance than any other presidential candidate before him, and was basically written off at the very beginning of the election. He took on other candidates, the Republican Party, the media, political analysts, but also his own nature and character. Later on, he faced the Democratic machinery led by Hillary Clinton. It is hard to even list all the challenges he experienced. However, the biggest one seems to be American demographics – the unfavorable demographic trends Republicans have been dealing with for decades. Trump was narrowing his potential electorate by making harsh and offensive statements about women and minorities, and it seemed it was demographics that would stand in the way of his victory. However, come November 9th, these expectations turned out to be unjustified. In this paper, we will try to answer how Donald Trump, despite almost all predictions, managed to overcome the “demographic problem” and win the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and we aim to do this by analyzing social and party line divisions, demographic trends and election strategies.

Ključne reči:


    1. Allison B. et al. (2016) Tracking the 2016 Presidential Money Race, Bloomberg, [online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/, [Accessed 9th December 2016].
    2. Amsden A. (2001) “The Rise of ‘The Rest’: Challenges to the West from Late – Industrializing World”. New York: Oxford University Press.
    3. Azari J. and Marc J. Hetherington (2016) “Back to the Future? What the Politics of the Late Nineteenth Century Can Tell Us about the 2016 Election”, in: The Annals of the American Academy, 667: pp. 92-109.
    4. Barbour et al. (eds.) (2013) “Growth and Opportunity Project”. Washington, D.C.: Republican National Committee.
    5. Barone M. (2016) Donald Trump’s Astounding Victory: How and Why, TownHall, [online] Available at: http://townhall.com/columnists/michaelbarone/2016/11/11/donald-trumps-astounding-victory-how-and-why-n2243954, [Accessed 15th December 2016].
    6. Bartels L. M. (2016) “Elections in America”, in: The Annals of the American Academy, 667: pp. 36-49.
    7. Brownstein R. (2016) Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?, The Atlantic, [online] Available at: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/trump-clinton-electoral-college/506306/, [Accessed 15th December 2016].
    8. Bump P. (2016) Donald Trump is facing an apocalyptic election scenario, thanks to women voters, The Washington Post, [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/13/donald-trumps-facing-an-apocalyptic-election-scenario-thanks-to-women-voters/?utm_term=.15adafc1f4c0, [Accessed 10th December 2016].
    9. CNN Politics (2016) Exit Polls, CNN, [online] Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls, [Accessed 6th December 2016].
    10. Cohen C. (2016) Donald Trump Sexism Tracker: Every Offensive Comment in One Place, The Telegraph, [online] Available at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/donald-trump-sexism-tracker-every-offensive-comment-in-one-place/, [Accessed 13th December 2016].
    11. Cohn N. (2014) Polarization is Dividing American Society Not Just Politics, The New York Times, [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/upshot/polarization-is-dividing-american-society-not-just-politics.html, [Accessed 8th December 2016].
    12. Damore D. and Matt Bareto (2015) The Latino Threshold to Win 2016, Latino Decision [online] Available at: http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2015/07/17/the-latino-threshold-in-2016-to-win/, [Accessed 13th December 2016].
    13. Dowd M. (2016) Absorbing the Impossible, [online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/opinion/absorbing-the-impossible.html?module=ConversationPieces&region=Body&action=click&pgtype=article, [Accessed 9th December 2016].
    14. Fisher D. H. (1992) “Albion’s Seed: Four British Folkways in America”. New York: Oxford University Press.
    15. Frank T. (2016) Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there, The Guardian, [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals, [Accessed 15th December 2016].
    16. Gallup (2012) Election Polls – Presidential Vote by Groups, [online] Available at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx, [Accessed 3rd December 2016].
    17. Garreau J. (1981) The Nine Nations of North America. New York: Avon Books.
    18. Hetherington M. J. and Jonathan J. Weiler (2009) “Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics”. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    19. Huang J. et all. (2016) Election 2016: Exit Polls, The New York Times, [online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html, [Accessed 6th December 2016].
    20. Jacobson G. C. (2016) “Polarization, Gridlock, and Presidential Campaign – Politics in 2016”, in: The Annals of the American Academy, 667: pp. 226-246.
    21. Kurtzleben D. (2016) Rural Voters Played a Big Part in Helping Trump Defeat Clinton, NPR, [online] Available at: http://www.npr.org/2016/11/14/501737150/rural-voters-played-a-big-part-in-helping-trump-defeat-clinton, [Accessed 7th December 2016].
    22. Lachmann R. (2014) The United States in Decline. Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    23. Mascano L. (2016) Trump’s Support Among Latino at 19%, Poll Finds, LA Times, [online] Available at: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-1472827916-htmlstory.html, [Accessed 10th December 2016].
    24. Navarrette R. J. (2016) Why the Latino Vote Didn’t Save America, The Daily Beast, [online] Available at: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/09/why-the-latino-vote-didn-t-save-america.html, [Accessed 13th December 2016].
    25. Olsen H. and Dante J. Scala (2016) “The Four Faces of the Republican Party: The Fight for the 2016 Presidential Nomination”, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
    26. Pew Research Center (2016) Public Uncertain, Divided Over America’s Place in the World, [online] Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2016/05/05/1-americas-global-role-u-s-superpower-status/, [Accessed 9th December 2016].
    27. Plouffe D. (2016) What I Got Wrong About the Election?, The New York Times, [online] Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opinion/what-i-got-wrong-about-the-election.html?ref=opinion, [Accessed 19th December 2016].
    28. Ramakrishnan K. (2016) Trump got more votes from people of color than Romney did. Here’s the data, The Washington Post, [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/11/trump-got-more-votes-from-people-of-color-than-romney-did-heres-the data/?utm_term=.d08ff6fa0240, [Accessed 11th December 2016].
    29. Sides J., Michael Tesler and Lynn Vavreck (2016) “The Electoral Landscape of the US Presidential Election”, in: The Annals of the American Academy, 667: pp. 50-72.
    30. Taxeira R. (ed.) (2008) “The Red, Blue & Purple America – The Future of Election Demographics”. Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
    31. Trende S. (2016) The ‘Missing White Voters’, Revisited, Real Clear Politics, [online] Available at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/09/the_missing_white_voters_revisisted_132308.html, [Accessed 11th December 2016].
    32. Volle J. J. (2016) Twenty-Five Years of GOP Presidential Nominations – Threading the Needle. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
    33. Wallerstein I. (2003) The Decline of American Power – The U.S. in a Chaotic World. New York: The New Press.
    34. Woodard C. (2011) American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America. London: Penguin Press.
    35. Zakarija F. (2009) Post-američki svet. Smederevo: Heliks.


PERIODIKA Serbian Political Thought 2/2016 UDC 324+342.849.2(73)”2016”Trump D.:314.18(73) 73-96