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EKONOMIJA U KRIZI I MOGUĆNOST UPRAVLJANJA

POZICIJA RUSIJE U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI

Sažetak

Nakon snažnog rasta u periodu 1998-2008 i recesije tokom 2009. ruska ekonomija je postigla umeren rast u periodu 2010-2012. Potom je detektovan spor rast (1,3%) u 2013, dok su projekcije za 2014. povećanje BDP od samo 0,2%. Trenutno se ruska privreda suočava s mogućnošću sankcija i stagnacije što bi moglo potrajati i duže od tri godine. Rublja je izgubila 1/4 svoje vrednosti od sredine 2014, zaključno sa krajem te godine. U baznom scenario ruske centralne banke očekuje se praktično nulti rast u 2015. i 2016, sa veoma skromnim oporavkom od 1,6% u 2017. Čak i pre eskalacije krize u Ukrajini, privreda Rusije je relativio loše funkcionisala, ukazujući kako model rasta zasnovan na iz­vozu energenata dobrim delom nije efektivan. U skladu sa MMF, mereno po kupovnoj moći, Rusija 2014 ima BDP od 2,6 hiljada milijardi dolara (oko 18,4 hiljada dolara per capita), te je njen udeo u svetskoj proizvodnji 3,4%, što je blag pad u odnosu na prethodne godine, a projekcije ukazuju da će se taj trend nastaviti. Po tržišnim kursevima Rusija čini 2,8% svetskog BDP.

 

Ključne reči:

Reference

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PERIODIKA Nacionalni interes 3/2014 УДК 330.34(470+571): 339.9“1998/2014“ 201-221
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