(NEO)PROTEKCIONIZAM I SVETSKA EKONOMSKA KRIZA

Branislav M. Pelević

Vladimir M. Ristanović

Sažetak

Slom međunarodne trgovine je jedna od posledica svetske ekonomske krize iz 2008. godine. Pad trgovine je bio čak veći u poređenju sa periodom Velike ekonomske krize, a, uz to, međunarodna trgovina je zabeležila višestruko veći pad od bruto domaćeg proizvoda sveta. Prethodna veza potvrđena je i u Srbiji, pri čemu je svetska kriza pogodila domaću privredu sa docnjom od jednog kvartala. Pad dohotka i trgovine u svetu bio je manji po izbijanju krize, nego što je bio inicijalni pad srpskog dohotka i trgovine. Narastajući protekcionizam nije među glavnim uzročnicima kolapsa trgovine, ali je njen bitni pratilac. Protekcio­nizam, međutim, pozitivne efekte može da omogući samo na kratak rok. On dovodi do smanjenje izvoza, zaposlenosti i dohotka u drugim zemljama, ali neminovno ima i povratni efekat dovodi do pada ukupne tražnje, uključujući i uvoznu tražnju za proizvo­dima iz zemlje koja je povećala mere zaštite. Otvaranje tržišta nesporno doprinosi efikasnijem i dinamičnijem rastu.

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