KONTINUITET I PROMENE SPOLJNE POLITIKE SAD PREMA ZAPADNOM BALKANU ZA VREME PRVE GODINE BAJDENOVE ADMINISTRACIJE: TREĆI OBAMIN ILI DRUGI TRAMPOV MANDAT?

Milan Krstić

Sažetak

Mnogi analitičari očekivali su radikalnu promenu u spoljnoj politici predsednika Džozefa Bajdena, posebno u poređenju sa prethodnim predsednikom Donaldom Trampom. Godinu dana nakon izborne pobede, mišljenja o tome koliko je Bajden zaista promenio spoljnu politiku SAD su podeljena i variraju od onih koji vide revolucionarnu promenu do onih koji vide samo razliku u tonu u većini ključnih aspekata. Ovaj rad nastoji da doprinese debati kroz analizu kontinuiteta i promene u spoljnoj politici nove administracije prema regionu Zapadnog Balkana. Iako su mnogi očekivali da Bajdenova politika bude sličnija pristupima predsednika Baraka Obame ili čak Bila Klintona, ovaj rad argumentuje da nova administracija zadržava značajan deo zajedničkog kursa sa Trampovom. Međutim, primetne su i određene promene i modifikacije, ali čini se da one nisu važnije od elemenata kontinuiteta koji postoje između odnosa dve administracije prema regionu. Rad se takođe obraća uzrocima ovakvog kontinuiteta i tvrdi da glavni razlog za to leži u strukturalnim faktorima na nivou međunarodnog sistema. Ostali razlozi se mogu naći na državnom (unutrašnjem nivou), kao i na individualnom nivou analize.

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