GLOBALNA DOMINACIJA DOLARA NA IZMAKU?

Goran V. Nikolić

Sažetak

U radu se ukazuje da se relativno spor razvoj juana kao rezervne valute odvija paralelno sa ekspanzijom trgovine fakturisane u renminbijama. Tvrdi se da bi, i u odsustvu finansijske liberalizacije, renminbi ipak mogao postati globalna valuta. Naime, prednost statusa lidera u svetskoj trgovini stvara potencijal za kreiranje tražnje i ponude renminbija, a u istom smeru deluje i povećanje broja centralnih banaka sa kojima Narodna banka Kine ima ugovore o svop linijama za razmenu deviza, kao i ubrzan razvoj ofšor tržišta juana. Važan momenat biće očekivane promene u kineskom režimu deviznog kursa budući da bi prestanak vezivanja juana za korpu valuta i prelazak na režim ciljanja inflacije mogao da dovede do toga da veći deo Azije prati Kinu, odnosno intenzivnije koristi njenu valutu. Dodatno, iako trenutno isključivo za domaću upotrebu, digitalna valuta centralne banke Kine će na kraju olakšati međunarodnu upotrebu renminbija. Posledično, može se zaključiti da će u narednim decenijama dolar nastaviti da bude glavna svetska moneta, ali ne tako izraženo kao što je to trenutno slučaj.

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