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GLOBALNI ODNOSI

DA LI ĆE KINESKA VALUTA TOKOM 2020-IH DOBITI GLOBALNI STATUS?

Sažetak

Pandemija KOVID-19 i s njom povezana ekonomska kriza katalizuje rebalans u globalnoj moći, od Zapada ka Istoku, što se odražava i na valutna tržišta. Procene su da će značajno ojačati uticaj renminbija (RMB) tokom treće decenije 21. veka, da bi na kraju tog perioda on postao treća najveća rezervna valuta. Ovo je povezano sa rastućom spremnošću stranih investitora da uđu na jedno od retkih tržišta kapitala za koje se očekuje značajan rast u post-KOVID-19 eri, pre svega zahvaljujući ubrzanju liberalizacije kineskog finansijskog tržišta i očekivanoj apresijaciji RMB tokom 2020-ih. Kineski pomaci na razvoju prve suverene digitalne valute će takođe imati veliku važnost za internacionalizaciju RMB. Ogromna veličina kineske ekonomije, koja će 2028. verovatno prestići američku, i rastuća uloga RMB-a predstavljaju do sada najozbiljniji izazov za SAD i dolar. U nadolazećem multipolarnom svetu može se zamisliti da dolar nastavlja da igra pretežnu, ali ne kao sada ekskluzivnu ulogu, u međunarodnoj trgovini i finansijama. Dakle, jasno je da je RMB još uvek daleko od svetske rezervne valute, koja zahteva punu konvertibilnost i potpunu liberalizaciju tržišta kapitala, ali se put ka tropolnom monetarnom sistemu, koga bi činili dolar, evro i renminbi, nazire.

Ključne reči:

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PERIODIKA Nacionalni interes 1/2021 1/2021 УДК 336.743(510)“2020/2030“ 285-307
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