Dušan Proroković

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PERIODICS

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY

The key characteristic of international relations is their anarchy and in modern conditions this is manifested by the continuous performance of psychological-propaganda operations (PsyOp) by some actors against others. PsyOp represent the first stage in the preparation and implementation of a hybrid war, but they can also be an end in themselves. Over time, they have become an indispensable means of ensuring national security. National security is ensured by eliminating or relativizing the conflicting interests of rivals (enemies) against whom PsyOp are directed. A new moment in the application of this concept is the development and (mis)use of artificial intelligence (AI). The capacities of artificial intelligence for designing and implementing PsyOp far exceed human potential. It can introduce international relations into a stage of constant and permanent conflicts by carrying out continuous psychological-propaganda operations and starting hybrid wars that will never end. Another danger lies in the claim of the creators of AI that the AI has its own logic, and because of this, in the future, it will depend less and less on given inputs. In an anarchic environment, AI can independently induce and generate wars by conducting unpredictable PsyOp. The author's conclusion is that the combination of traditional anarchy and new technology worsens the national security of states, but indirectly also global security, and therefore it is necessary to think about different ways of limiting the use of AI in international relations.

PERIODICS

SWOT ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC STRATEGY: MILITARY ASPECT

Climate change has induced global warming, which resulted in the rapid melting of the northern ice cap in the last decade and a half. In addition to allowing the vast resources stored in the area to eventually become available for exploitation, it also made the northern borders of the Arctic coastal states exposed to potential attack. Aware of this, Russia, the United States of America, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland have begun the process of militarization of the region.

In this paper, the authors focused on Russia’s military activities in the High North, and the SWOT matrix was used for their analysis. Accordingly, the main goal of the work was to determine the main strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that characterize Russian military engagement in the aforementioned area. The analysis showed that the massive presence of infrastructure and military personnel form the backbone of Russian military power in the mentioned area. Within this context, missile systems (hypersonic and other), which are technologically superior to those possessed by the competition, are of particular importance. The absence of a significant presence of NATO military forces in the given area and the strengthening of military cooperation with the Chinese in the Arctic are a chance for Russia to further strengthen its position.

On the other hand, the analysis also showed that Russian military activism in the area around the North Pole is characterized by certain weaknesses. The inconsistency of the development of the military component with the economic, social and other aspects of power projection in the region represents the most important one. Apart from leading to an uneven development of the overall potential in the Russian part of the Arctic and thereby preventing the implementation of an integral strategy, it simultaneously makes it difficult to carry out planning and operational military activities, primarily because it causes the emergence of logistical and other gaps. In addition to the above, the condition of a part of the Russian military equipment is also an obvious weakness. It is not at a satisfactory level, which, among other things, is evidenced by frequent accidents related to this issue. With this in mind, climate change is also a relevant factor. They caused the melting of the ice sheet, which throughout history served as a natural shield of the northern Russian borders. With its disappearance, those borders become more open to attack by potential aggressors, at the same time complicating the protection of the Northern Sea Route.

The main threat for Russia, according to the analytical matrix, is the announced expansion of NATO. Namely, if Sweden and Finland join that military alliance, the border between Russia and NATO will double. Given that the two Scandinavian countries were militarily neutral for many years, the Russians had no need to build massive defense capabilities along the dividing line with Finland, nor to significantly protect their strategic installations on the Kola Peninsula from a potential threat that could threaten them from that direction. However, if the circumstances change, Kremlin will face obvious problems. These problems primarily refer to the absence of military infrastructure along the mentioned border, but also to the shortcomings related to civilian capacities in the said area, which directly or indirectly hinder the logistical functioning of the army. Nevertheless, if the circumstances change, Kremlin will face obvious problems.

The authors conclude that Kremlin should undertake the uniform development of all Arctic potentials, in order for Russia to maintain its position as the leading nation in the region. Only in this way protection of borders and security of resources would be at an optimal level, both in peacetime and in conditions of armed conflict.

PERIODICS

RUSSIA'S POSITION IN THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD AND SERBIA'S STRATEGIC OPTIONS

By relying on realistic theories of international relations, using the methods of content analysis, synthesis and comparison, it is possible to monitor and prove the phenomenon of establishing a balance of power in contemporary international relations. One of the key factors in that process is certainly the Russian Federation. The aspiration to redefine the post-Cold War international order and to shape a new one - multipolar and polycentric, is noticeable in Russia's strategies, as well as in the appearances of officials and concrete actions. Undoubtedly, Russia is positioning itself as one of the independent poles in the changing structure of the world political system, which is why it is necessary to consider the strategic options of the Republic of Serbia in that context. The paper consists of five parts. The introductory part is dedicated to the presentation of the framework - methodological and theoretical, as well as key concepts. The second part explains the structure of the world political system and the phenomenon of balance of power, while the third part specifically shows this through the current (foreign policy) positioning of Russia (influence on the transformation of the world political system and balance of power). The fourth part analyzes Russian - Serbian relations, their quality and content, while the fifth part discusses the strategic options of the Republic of Serbia. The time frame of the research is limited to the period from 2008 and the beginning of the global financial-economic crisis until today. For the purposes of the research, contemporary political science, security, economic, legal and historiographical literature was used, as well as primary sources related to decisions of international organizations, institutions of Russia and Serbia, as well as statements of officials relevant to this paper.

PERIODICS

POLITICAL VECTOR OF THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIA

When defining the concept of sustainable development The Government of the Republic of Serbia accepted the narrowest possible interpretation of its social dimension, so it was not possible to think more seriously about the political vectors that influence the direction of development. Therefore, in a certain circumstancies, not only economic growth is called into question, but also the national security or the security of some social groups and individuals. Non-independence in political decisions and determinations has its price and causes concrete consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to change the approach in defining sustainable development and projecting one's own goals in accordance with multi-vector foreign policy aspirations, in order to reduce the potential consequences and make the sustainability of long-term development more realistic. The work consists of four parts. The introductory part is dedicated to the consideration of the concept of development and the critique of linking the development paradigm to exclusively economic growth. The second part explains the concept of sustainable development and its social dimension. The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Serbia is analyzed in the third part, with a critical review of non-compliance with other strategic documents. The fourth part is the concluding considerations.

PERIODICS

The end of History, Culture of Megalopolis and Geopolitics of Polis

“The End of History” that Fukuyama predicted did not mean only the final triumph of liberal democracy, but also the final triumph of the Western civilization. Western values ​​are transferred through the Culture of Megalopolis. This Culture aims to be globally accepted, universal and therefore able to assimilate all Poleis that exist in the world. However, it has been shown that traditional societies do not accept the Culture of Megalopolis because of the perception that it would lead to gradual political, economic and cultural peripherization. This is how the Culture of Polis, as an element of geopolitical positioning of regional powers is formed.