THE ROLE OF BRICS IN ESTABLISHING THE BALANCE OF POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Dušan Proroković

Abstract

At the summit in Johannesburg in August 2023, BRICS members made a decision on expansion, and an invitation for full membership was sent to the addresses of six more potential members. A year before, an agreement was reached on the establishment of a reserve basket of currencies, the first step in the creation of an international reserve currency. The obvious goal is to create alternative financial institutions in opposition to the IMF, the World Bank and the WTO and to reduce the political influence of the USA and the collective West by de-dollarizing the global economy. This paper proves the thesis that BRICS was created due to the establishment of a balance of power in international relations. That is, that the decisions that are made are motivated by the political reasons for which this platform was founded. Therefore, the balance of power is not established due to de-dollarization, but de-dollarization is purposefully induced in order to achieve the balance of power in international relations. Or, the expansion of BRICS is not due to a change in the balance of power, but the expansion of BRICS accelerates the establishment of a new balance in international relations. The intensification of integrations within BRICS, as well as the intensification of strategic BRICS projects, such as the establishment of the New Development Bank and the announcement of de-dollarization, were influenced by two important events in the last decade and a half: the Arab Spring and the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Changes in international relations and the security environment forced BRICS to speed up the development of specific projects and their implementation. As a result, the establishment of the balance of power is taking place faster than previously predicted.

References

Acemoglu, Daren. 2023. “The Wrong BRICS Expansion.” Project Syndicate, 31.08.2023. Last Access: January 17, 2024. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brics-expansion-wrong-for-emerging-economies-by-daron-acemoglu-2023-08

Africa Policy Research Institute. 2023. “Beyond the BRICS 2023 Summit: Outcomes and Next Steps.” Webinar, 31.08.2023. Last Access: January 21, 2024. https://afripoli.org/event/beyond-the-brics-2023-summit-outcomes-and-next-steps.

Ahmed, Aftab and Swati Bhat. 2023. “Exclusive: India, Russia suspend negotiations to settle trade in rupees.” Reuters, 04.05.2023. Last Access: January 3, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/india-russia-suspend-negotiations-settle-trade-rupees-sources-2023-05-04/

Arrasyid, Sofwan F. 2023. „BRICS Economic Potential and Its Impact on De-dollarization.” Modern Diplomacy, 10.12.2023. Last Access: December 14, 2023.  https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/12/10/brics-economic-potential-and-its-impact-on-de-dollarization/.

Béland, Daniel, Philip Roco, Catarina Ianni Segatto, and Alex Waddan, 2021. “Trump, Bolsonaro, and the Framing of the Covid-19 Crisis: How Political Institutions Shaped Presidential Strategies.” World Affairs 184(4): 413-440.

Bhatt, Anjali. 2023. “No One Knows What BRICS Expansion Means.” The Diplomat, 04.10.2023. Last Access: January 11, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/no-one-knows-what-brics-expansion-means/

Borger, Julian. 2023. “Brics to more than double with admission of six new countries.” The Guardian, 24.08.2023. Last Access: December 11, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc.

Bouchard, Joseph, and Sophie Egar. 2023. “Laying the BRICS for a reshaped global order.” East Asia Forum, 07.10.2023. Last Access: January 17, 2024. https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/07/laying-the-brics-for-a-reshaped-global-order/.

BRICS. 2009. “Joint Statement of the BRIC Countries’ Leaders.” 16.06.2009. Available at:  http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/090616-leaders.html.

BRICS. 2011. “Sanya Declaration.” 14.04.2011. Available at: http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/110414-leaders.html.

BRICS. 2014. „Treaty for the Establishment of a BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement.” 15.07.2014. Available at:  http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/140715-treaty.html.

BRICS. 2015. “VII BRICS Summit: 2015 Ufa Declaration.” 09.07.2015. Available at: http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/150709-ufa-declaration_en.html.

BRICS. 2016. “8^th BRICS Summit: Goa Declaration.” 16.10.2016. Available at: http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/161016-goa.html.

BRICS. 2018. “BRICS in Africa: Collaboration for Inclusive Growth and Shared Prosperity in the 4^th Industrial Revolution.” 26.07.2018. Available at:  http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/180726-johannesburg.html.

BRICS. 2019. “Brasilía Declaration.” 14.11.2019. Available at: http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/191114-brasilia.html.

BRICS. 2022. “XIV BRICS Summit Beijing Declaration.” 23.06.2022. Available at: https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/35435/XIV+BRICS+Summit+Beijing+Declaration

BRICS. 2023. “The 15^th BRICS Academic Forum Held in South Africa.” 20.05.2023. Available at: https://www.bricspic.org/En/Pages/Home/NewsDetail.aspx?rowId=499.

Buchholz, Katharina. 2023. “Rise of BRICS Bloc Continues Through Expansion.” The Forbes, 25.08.2023. Last Access. January 22, 2023.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2023/08/25/rise-of-brics-bloc-continues-through-expansion-infographic/.

Cheatham,  Andrew and Adam Gallagher. 2023. “Why the BRICS Summit Could Be a Big Deal.” United States Institute of Peace, 23.08.2023. Last Access: December 29, 2023. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/why-brics-summit-could-be-big-deal.

Cooper, Andrew. 2017. “The BRICS’ New Development Bank: Shifting from Material Leverage to Innovative Capacity.” Global Policy 8(3): 275-284.

Dizikes, Peter. 2023. “Q&A: The BRICS expansion and the global balance of power.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 26.09.2023. Last Access: December 29, 2023.  https://news.mit.edu/2023/taylor-fravel-brics-expansion-0926

Dominguez, Gabriel. 2023. “BRICS considering expansion as emerging economies rally to join group.” The Japan Times, 25.05.2023. Last Access: January 04, 2024. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/25/world/politics-diplomacy-world/brics-expansion-emerging-economies-join/.

Erlanger, Steven, David Pierson and Lynsey Chutel. 2023. “Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt Invited to Join Emerging Nations Group.” The New York Times, 24.08.2023. Last access: January 11, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/urope/brics-expansion-xi-lula.html

Forsythe, Michael, et al. 2011. “China Prodded by BRICS Partners to Buy More Than Commodities.” Bloomberg, 13.04.2011. Last Access: December 30, 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-04-13/countries-at-brics-summit-push-china-to-import-more-airliners-medicines.

Gan, Nectar. 2023. “BRICS expansion is a big win for China. But can it really work as a counterweight to the West?” CNN, 28.08.2023. Last Access: January 10, 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/28/china/china-brics-expansion-victory-intl-hnk/index.html.

Greene, Robert. 2023. “The Difficult Realities of the BRICS’ Dedollarization Efforts—and the Renminbi’s Role.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 05.10.2023. Last Access: January 11, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/05/difficult-realities-of-brics-dedollarization-efforts-and-renminbi-s-role-pub-91173.

Hart, Brian. 2023. “The 2023 BRICS Summit: A Mixed Bag for China.” China Power (Center for Strategic and International Studies), 09.05.2023. Last Access: December 30. https://chinapower.csis.org/analysis/the-2023-brics-summit-a-mixed-bag-for-china/.

Hill, Thomas. 2023. „China’s de-dollarization message finds a receptive audience in North Africa.” Atlantic Council, 13.12.2023. Last Access, January 14, 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-dedollarization-north-africa/.

India Today. 2010. “PM pitches for close cooperation among BRIC nations.“, 15.04.2010. Last Access: January 04, 2024. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/americas/story/pm-pitches-for-close-cooperation-among-bric-nations-71928-2010-04-15.

Kang, Seonjou. 2023. “RICS Expansion in 2023: A Beginning of Geopolitical Reshuffling?” The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security and Korea National Diplomatic Academy, Paper No. IF2023-11E. Last Access: January 4, 2024.  https://www.ifans.go.kr/knda/ifans/kor/main/IfansMain.do.

Kanter, Caroline, and Magdalena Jetschgo-Morcillo. 2023. „Geopolitical power shift or transactional alliance?” Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 01.12.2023. Last Access: January 21. https://www.kas.de/en/brics-plus.

Kruger, Corrie. 2022. “Putin suggests BRICS looking at new global reserve currency backed by hard assets.” IOL, 04.07.2022. Last Access: January 5, 2024. https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/putin-suggests-brics-looking-at-new-global-reserve-currency-backed-by-hard-assets-9034b240-f216-4e76-a3b6-dea8a7ad63e4.

Kumar, Pramod. 2023. “BRICS Summit 2023: Major Outcomes and Relevance.”Australian Institute of International Affairs, 12.10.2023. Last Access: January 4, 2023. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-summit-2023-major-outcomes-and-relevance/

Laïdi, Zaki. 2011. “The BRICS Against the West?” Centre d’études et de Recherches Internationales (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS), CERI Strategy Paper No. 11. Last Access: January 5, 2024. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2315108.

Lesser, Ian, Andrew Small, and Garima Mohan. 2023. “GMF Expert Analysis: 2023 BRICS Summit Brings Expansion.” German Marshall Fund, 24.08.2023. Last Access: December 27, 2023. https://www.gmfus.org/news/gmf-expert-analysis-2023-brics-summit-brings-expansion.

Liu, Zongyuan Zoe, and Michaela Papa. 2022. Can BRICS De-Dollarize the Global Financial System? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

McNamara, Paul. 2023. “Why a Brics Currency Is a Flawed Idea”. Financial Times, 10.02.2023. Last Access: December 29, 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/02d6ab99-ea36-41c4-9ad3-9658bb1894a7. 

Miršajmer, Džon. 2009. Tragedija politike velikih sila. Beograd: Udruženje za studije Sjedinjenih Država u Srbiji.

Mohan, Raja. 2023. “BRICS Expansion Is No Triumph for China.” Foreign Policy, 29.08.2023. Last Access: December 28, 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/29/brics-expansion-china-russia-global-south-us-geopolitics-alliances/.

Mukherjee, Andy. 2023. “The yuan is finally showing some muscle in international trade.” The Japan Times, 25.12.2023. Last Access: January 11, 2023. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/12/25/world/yuan-international-trade/

Nogueira Pinto, Teresa. 2023. “Building a bigger BRICS.” GIS, 12.09.2023. Last Access: December 29, 2023. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-expands-clout/

O’Neill, Jim. 2023. “Does an expanded BRICS mean anything?”Chatam House, 27.08.2023. Last Access: January 23, 2024. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/08/does-expanded-brics-mean-anything.

Raghavan, Sharad. 2023.(2023, April 4). “Led by China, India, the 5 BRICS nations now contribute more to world GDP than industrialised G7.” ThePrint, 04.04.2023. Last Access: December 27, 2023. https://theprint.in/economy/led-by-china-india-the-5-brics-nations-now-contribute-more-to-world-gdp-than-industrialised-g7/1490881/.

Roach, Michael. 2023. “De-dollarisation: shifting power between the US and BRICS.” Lowy Institute, 03.08.2023. Last Access: December 21, 2023. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/de-dollarisation-shifting-power-between-us-brics

Stuenkel, Oliver. 2020. The BRICS and Future of Global Order. New York: Lexington Books.

Tang Lingxiao, Ouyang Yao and Huang Zexian. 2015. “The Foundation for the Establishment of the BRICS New Development Bank: Immediate Impetus and Theoretical Rationale.” Social Sciences in China 36(4): 40-56.  

Varadarajan, Siddharth. 2010. „Multipolar economy is giving rise to new geopolitics.“ The Hindu, 16.04.2010. Last Access: December 29, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20100417061306/http://www.hindu.com/2010/04/16/stories/2010041662881200.htm.

Waltz, Keneth. 1979. Theory of International Relations. Reading: Addison – Wesley.

World Economic Forum. 2021. “BRICS Academic Forum Report.” 31.08.2021. Last Access: January 22, 2024. https://intelligence.weforum.org/monitor/latest-knowledge/ee4751e38f4840e3967ca05f75c6aa98.

Yuan, Shaoyu. 2023. “De-dollarization Dreams: Why the US Dollar Won’t Bow Out.” The Diplomat, 13.09.2023. Last Access: January 04, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/de-dollarization-dreams-why-the-us-dollar-wont-bow-out/